Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Bubble Question

Klarman index - Yes
Prem Watsa - Yes
Buffett - Purchases decreased dramatically

From all the other places such as Shiller P/E (James Montier), Hussman Weekly, Tech multiples, it is quite clear that there is a bubble in the tech sector and in general the market is overvalued, interest rates are artificially low atleast in the developed markets.

clearly, US markets will drive the Indian markets elections notwithstanding - FII money tends to exaggerate the impact; Therefore the way to deal with this is to have a tight leash on investable opportunities and play arbitrage only for 2 years. Question then is do you buy long dated puts? how do you hedge the rest of the portfolio at least cost?


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