Monday, May 5, 2014

Its not a given

Retail and circle of competence
Interestingly, Buffett noted that most of his investment misses -- at least those related to straying outside his circle of competence -- have been in retail. Without explicitly saying, he more or less chalked this up to not knowing the businesses.
I take a somewhat different view. Retail and consumer goods companies with solid, enduring brands possess a license to print cash. That's good, except for one thing: The prospect for that license to print cash to stick around is uncertain, and sometimes it disappearsvery quickly. Brands move in and out of fashion and that makes long-term cash generation nearly impossible to estimate.

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