Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Confirmation Bias

As Austrian-British philosopher Karl Popper says, the only way of testing a hypothesis is to form a view and to spend the rest of the day looking for evidence that proves you are wrong, a process known as falsification. Good decision-makers should consciously seek out diverse views that challenge their existing opinions


The root cause of confirmation bias is self-gratification, a constant need to feel right about the choices we make, because intrinsically we all tend to believe that our choices are a manifestation of our 1) character or 2) persona or 3) ability. Self-gratification is an aftermath of over-confidence or under-confidence and a self-driven confusion between cause and effect, often times wrongly attributing higher weights to the outcome than the process. The cure to this issue is active self-quarantine and a sense of scepticism in every observation, which by nature is very difficult because to err is afterall human

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