Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Rajasthan Elections - Analyzing survey results

CNN-IBN- The Week - No. of respondents - 4427! low number considering 50 seats => 90 people interviewed per region to arrive at conclusion - seems v. low

Crazy number of conclusions based on this little data:) - But comments below the web page are quite informative. Most educated people will want congress out, but the word educated is very subjective!


Headlines Today-CVoter - No. of respondents not mentioned

Signal?
Gehlot is also buffeted by an anti-incumbency factor that plays particularly strongly in the state. “Since 1993 in every election in Rajasthan, the ruling party has lost, Sandeep Shastri, the the Vice Chancellor of Jain University in Bangalore,” pointed out during a CNN-IBN panel discussion on the poll results. “It will require a great effort from the Congress to retain the state.”

Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/bjp-has-taken-rajasthan-as-gehlot-looked-to-delhi-survey-1201385.html?utm_source=ref_article

With this low balling the data - I'm concluding 1) opinion polls are trash because of the sample set; however 2) looking at the comments below in each of the surveys with the anti-incumbency factor - it makes me believe that BJP will will in RJ

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